Bob McDonnell picked up a GOP victory, becoming Virginia's

next governor

SDNR Commentary

In the wake of Republican victories in off-year elections in Virginia and New Jersey, the GOP appears poised for further gains in next year’s mid-term congressional races, while some of the luster has faded from President Barack Obama’s landmark election exactly a year ago.

With Chris Christie ousting Democratic Governor Jon Corzine of New Jersey—a deep-blue state that Obama won by 15 points last November—and Bob McDonnell ending eight years of Democratic residence in the governor’s mansion in Virginia—a purplish state that Obama in 2008 was the first Democrat to capture in decades—voters seemed to voice their dissatisfaction with Democratic leaders and their policies.

There were some warning signs, however, especially in upstate New York, where a Democrat won a special election in a congressional district that has voted Republican since the 19th century.

But what lessons can we take away from Tuesday’s results?  Here are some thoughts:

(1) Good candidates will beat bad ones: For the most part, the Republican candidates simply outclassed the Democratic ones.  McDonnell, by all accounts, ran a flawless campaign, focusing on issues of critical importance to Virginia voters, such as jobs, transportation, and taxes.  His opponent, Creigh Deeds, concentrated on attacking McDonnell over a controversial, 20-year-old academic thesis while flip-flopping on various key issues (taxes, a transit plan, health care reform).  While McDonnell—who carried to victory on his coattails two other statewide candidates along with various state legislators—was perennially congenial on the campaign trail, Deeds often became visibly flustered by reporters’ questions.

Meanwhile, Christie relentlessly attacked Corzine’s problematic record of property and income tax hikes, while Corzine resorted to pointing out Christie’s weight problems.  In a state known for its Italian restaurants—and the Mafiosi who frequent them—this scheme was a big fat flop.  Christie proved to be a likeable guy while Corzine, a former Goldman Sachs executive, exuded all the charm of a Wall Street mandarin.

Thus, both parties learned the importance of selecting quality candidates who can withstand negative attacks and respond with a smile.

(2) Support for Obama’s policies has waned.  President Obama has retained his personal popularity; although his job approval rating has declined significantly since the time of his election and inauguration (poll averages put his approval around 50%).  And the off-year elections can’t fairly be described as a referendum on the president, as exit polls showed that voters focused on local, pocketbook issues in making up their minds.

But the White House can’t deny that Obama invested heavily in these races, putting his personal popularity on the line in New Jersey, especially, where he campaigned relentlessly for Corzine.  The president’s face adorned billboards and campaign mailers, sometimes together with the Democratic candidates and sometimes on its own.

So did Corzine and Deeds lose because of Obama’s support or in spite of it?  We may never know, but it’s difficult to dispute that the bloated deficit spending and burgeoning big government projects embarked upon by Democrats in Washington proved daunting for Garden State and Old Dominion voters.  After all, we’ll have to pay for these adventures at some point through higher taxes, and these folks evinced deep suspicions that Democrats like Corzine and Deeds would raise their taxes (and neither one gave voters reason to suspect otherwise, as explained above).

Thus, Obama himself will suffer only minor bruising from the election, but his and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s plans to continue remaking the economy—including the 1/6 of it tied up in health care spending—by augmenting the role of the state and its expenditures are more in jeopardy now than at any other point in the president’s short term in office.  Democrats in conservative districts can now palpably sense their electoral vulnerability and are more likely to approach ambitious liberal plans with skepticism.

(3) Party machinery needs to listen to the base… The one notable defeat for Republicans came in New York’s 23rd Congressional District, where Democrat Bill Owens defeated Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman and Republican Dede Scozzafava.  In a race that became a soap opera, GOP county chairmen hand-picked Scozzafava to carry the party’s standard.

But she proved a political liability, having supported the president’s stimulus package, favoring union-friendly legislation like “card-check,” and enjoying the support of New York’s ACORN-linked Working Families Party (not to mention bucking conservative positions on gay marriage and abortion).  Right-wingers coalesced behind Hoffman, ultimately prompting Scozzafava, whose poll numbers were deteriorating, to quit the race last weekend and endorse Owens, thereby validating the fears of her conservative detractors.

The whole mess derives from the New York GOP’s process for choosing candidates for special elections, in which backroom deals take the place of primaries.  By contrast, in California, Republican David Harmer lost a special congressional election to John Garamendi, albeit by only half of the party registration gap in the district.  But both Harmer and Garamendi earned their parties’ respective nominations through primary elections, thereby ensuring that prominent third-party candidates stayed out of the race.

Going forward, both parties must ensure their core voters get the opportunity to weigh in on candidate selection; otherwise, the appetite by the base to cannibalize its party’s candidate will prove insatiable.

(4) …while the base must think strategically.  In the New York congressional race, Hoffman enjoyed the support of prominent national conservatives like Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, and Dick Armey, along with center-right magazines like National Review and the Weekly Standard, and the leadership of the tea party movement.

But Hoffman, like Deeds and Corzine, turned out to be a lackluster candidate:  he didn’t live in the district, displayed a weak grasp of local issues, and just seemed uncomfortable interacting with voters.  Hoffman was ill-suited for the district he sought to represent, and wound up losing narrowly to the Democrat.  He may nevertheless have been the best choice for Republicans, but he wasn’t a very good one.

So party activists—liberal and conservative alike—need to carefully assess the candidates to which they gravitate ideologically.  Again, the best way to do that is through a primary election, which produces a nominee that the party rank and file believes best represents the views of the district and is most likely to emerge victorious.

Expect these issues to recur in a year’s time, when the battle for Congress begins anew.

Michael M. Rosen, a News Room contributor, is an attorney in Carmel Valley and the Secretary of the Republican Party of San Diego County.  The views expressed are his own.  Reach him at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it

                                        

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