Will the Legislature leapfrog Maldonado?

That question could be asked about Sen. Abel Maldonado’s nomination by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger to be the next lieutenant governor, replacing John Garamendi who won a congressional seat. Although this position of lieutenant governor is often referred to as useless, Maldonado’s nomination has struck a nerve within the California Legislature.

On the surface, Schwarzenegger’s nomination makes sense. Maldonado, 42, represents the quintessential American story. Born the son of a Mexican agricultural worker, Maldonado grew up working the fields in San Barbara County.  His life story is inspiring, but his relationship with the Latino demographic might be more important to the GOP—which has consistently struggled to attract Latino voters. Maldonado has also proved able to work across party lines, a positive habit that has gotten him in trouble with the GOP.

Earlier this year, Maldonado reached across party lines and provided the necessary vote to pass this year’s tax-laden budget. That move angered Republicans across the state, including California Party Vice Chairman Jon Fleischman, who recently commented on Maldonado.

“Abel Maldonado believes in big government. He believes there is no issue upon which you can’t compromise. If he wants to call himself a Republican and embrace the philosophy of the other party, it’s the height of hubris,” he said.

When Maldonado voted for this year’s budget, he did so under the premise that Democrats return the favor and put an open primary ballot measure on next year’s ballot--an example of the political bartering for which Maldonado is renowned.

“I upset people, but California is not bankrupt today. California is not sending out IOUs,” Maldonado said.

But the surge of negativity within the GOP goes beyond partisan politics, its political positioning. Two Republican members of the state Senate are running for lieutenant governor: Jeff Denham and Sam Aanestad. The two are likely to pressure colleagues to vote against his confirmation.

“It is difficult to see how a candidate who has voted for a massive tax increase could possibly win a statewide Republican primary,” Denham said when Maldonado was first nominated.

Denham was referring to Maldonado’s public ambition to run for the position next year, and the possibility of Maldonado using his incumbent status, if confirmed, as a platform to do so.

“If I’m good enough to be nominated, I’m good enough to run,” rebutted Maldonado.

Denham has conducted a survey using the polling firm, Public Opinion Strategies, to measure Maldonado’s support. The survey found that 84 percent of Republican voters would oppose the Santa Maria senator for lieutenant governor. But even if the moderate Maldonado could not move past the Republican primary next year, GOP lawmakers have to be cautious not to reject his nomination. The move to dump Maldonado could further alienate Latino voters, the fastest growing portion of the state’s electorate.

“I’m tired of seeing the Orange County and Placer County axis try to run the Republican Party in this state,” said GOP consultant Patrick Dorinson in The San Francisco Chronicle. “They should be happy to get a Latino Republican that job.

Likewise, Democrats in the Legislature must tread lightly when dealing with Maldonado. Sen. Dean Florez of Shafter has also announced his intentions for running for lieutenant governor next year.   He was one of the quickest Senators to speak on Maldonado’s nomination.

“I don’t see the Senate confirming him,” he said.

Florez and the rest of the Democratic legislature are worried that Maldonado could get a leg up on them if nominated before next year’s election. But an outright Democrat denial could turn Maldonado into a martyr, causing Latino voters to be turned off to the party. Denying him the position could also look bad for Democrats, as Maldonado has on several times fought on their side.

Democrats could also have an incentive for approving Maldonado. His District 15 is one of the few toss-up districts in the state, with voter registration leaning Democratic. If vacated, Democrats would have a chance at winning the seat, meaning they would only be one seat away from obtaining a two-thirds majority in the Senate.

So far, Maldonado’s confirmation process has proved to be just as entertaining as how he was nominated—when Schwarzenegger made the announcement on “The Jay Leno Show.” But if the Legislature continues to idle, pondering the pros and cons of Maldonado, he will automatically take office on Feb. 16. If either the Senate or Assembly disapproves by a majority vote, the nomination will be rejected. Although the position is a mostly ceremonial role, the Legislature’s decision could have a significant effect on California politics.

                                        

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